The economic numbers may look encouraging—but the story beneath them is more complicated.
On this episode of Dealer Driven, hosts Camron Wilson and Michael Hayes welcome back NADA Chief Economist Patrick Manzi for a look at second-quarter 2026 vehicle sales, consumer demand and the forces likely to shape Q3.
He explains why strong sales figures can mask growing divides in consumer purchasing power. New-vehicle demand is increasingly driven by higher-income households, while many middle- and lower-income consumers remain pressured by inflation, insurance, housing, child care and other rising costs.
The product mix also tells an important story. Hybrid market share continues to grow, new battery-electric vehicle sales remain under pressure and used EVs are becoming more attractive as leased vehicles return to the market.
Affordability remains a defining challenge. Manzi discusses rising monthly payments, longer loan terms and negative-equity risks, while emphasizing the importance of stocking vehicles across a broad range of price points. Affordable used inventory remains scarce and valuable.
The episode also examines inventory levels, Toyota’s momentum, the model that outsold the Ford F-150 in June and the forces dealers should watch next.
Despite ongoing uncertainty, Manzi remains optimistic, maintaining his forecast of 16 million light-vehicle sales for the year.
Listen to Dealer Driven for the data, context and insights your dealership needs heading into Q3.
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