New light-vehicle sales in June 2026 totaled a SAAR of 16.52 million units, an increase of 4.4% year over year. Year to date through June 2026, the SAAR totaled 15.9 million units, a decline of 2.8%. In the first half of 2025, there was significant pull-ahead volume as consumers purchased vehicles before the tariffs on imported autos and auto parts went into effect, so this should be noted when comparing the first half of 2026 to the first half of 2025.
Sales of conventional hybrid vehicles continue to be red hot. Through the first half of 2026, conventional hybrid vehicle sales total 1.21 million units, an increase of 19.4% compared to the first half of 2025. Conventional hybrid market share reached 15.4% in the first half of 2026, an increase of 2.9 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales have slowed considerably. BEV sales were down 25.1% year over year through the first half of 2026, and BEV market share was down 1.7 percentage points compared to the first half of 2025.
According to JD Power, the average monthly payment on a new-vehicle finance contract should total $813 in June 2026, an increase of 3.4% year over year and the highest ever monthly payment for any June. OEM incentive spending also increased. JD Power estimates that average incentive spending per unit should total $3,217 in June 2025, an increase of 12.7% year over year. As prices and payments continue to rise, more customers are extending their loan terms to keep payments reasonable. JD Power says that 13.6% of loans now have terms of 84 months or longer.
Hot off the presses is news that the U.S. will not renew the USMCA in its current form. Negotiations between the U.S. and Mexico will continue until July 20, with no date set for negotiations between the U.S. and Canada. While some proposed changes have been suggested, we await further news about what an updated trilateral or two bilateral agreements may contain. Looking ahead to the rest of 2026, our forecast for new light-vehicle sales remains at 16.0 million units.
