New light-vehicle sales in September 2026 reached a SAAR of 16.0 million units, down 3.6% year over year. Through September, the year-to-date SAAR totaled 16.1 million units, down 1.9% compared to the same period last year. To provide some context, sales volumes last year were inflated in the months leading up to the end of the federal EV tax credits in September 2025. Additionally, Labor Day holiday sales were included in August 2025 reporting, while this year those sales numbers were included in September and provided a boost to sales volume for the month. 

With the end of federal EV tax credits now a year behind us, the current sales pace for battery electric vehicles (BEV) likely reflects true market demand. Through this September, BEV sales are down 29.2% year over year. BEV market share totaled 6.2%, down 2.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year. While BEV sales have fallen significantly since the removal of the federal EV tax credits, conventional hybrid vehicle sales have been red hot. Through September, hybrid sales are up 22.4% year over year. Year-to-date hybrid market share also has increased, reaching 15.6% of all new light vehicles sold—an increase of 3.1 percentage points year over year.

Recent upward moves in treasury yields are likely to push borrowing costs and monthly payments higher in the coming months. According to JD Power, the average interest rate on a new-vehicle finance contract should be 6.6% in September 2026, roughly flat compared to September 2025. The average monthly payment for a new-vehicle finance contract is expected to be $821, up 3.2% year over year and the highest payment on record for any September.

New-vehicle demand this year has been robust, but there are headwinds from rising interest rates, higher gas prices and slowing real wage growth. Despite such challenges, we are confident that new light-vehicle sales will meet or exceed our new light-vehicle sales forecast of 16.0 million units for 2026.

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