Through the first quarter of 2026, commercial truck sales totaled 86,891 units, a decline of 17.7% compared to Q1 2025. Both medium- and heavy-duty truck sales saw year-over-year declines. Year to date through March, medium-duty truck sales totaled 46,661, down 15.2% year over year. And heavy-duty truck sales reached just 40,230 in Q1 2026, down 20.5% compared to the same period in 2025. Commercial truck sales in March were also down compared to March 2025, the ninth straight month of year-over-year declines.
Despite sales declines, the market appears to be heating up as Class 8 truck orders in March increased more than 100% year over year for the second straight month. According to ACT Research, North American Class 8 truck net orders reached 37,200 units in March, up 126% year over year. Medium-duty orders were also up, but not nearly as much as Class 8 orders. ACT Research estimates Class 5-7 net orders in March totaled 19,300 units, an increase of 4.5% year-over-year.
Since last month, spot and contract trucking rates have improved significantly, driven in part by trucking demand from data-center construction. Higher and more volatile diesel fuel prices since the start of the war in Iran have also pushed up rates. Given the improving freight environment and pending increase in equipment costs from EPA ’27 NOx regulations, fleets finally seem to be buying trucks. The industry still awaits more clarity on pending EPA regulations, but estimates of price increases from the new EPA policy have fallen from $20k-$30k per truck to $10k-$15k per truck, according to FTR trucking analysts.
A headwind is the tenuous situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which has led to significant price spikes for diesel fuel, food and other commodities as well as various byproducts of oil and gas production in the region. Despite such ongoing challenges, our outlook for new commercial truck sales has improved significantly. For 2026, we expect medium-duty truck sales will total 236,000 units and heavy-duty truck sales will reach 225,000 units.
