Commercial truck sales in September 2025 were down across the board. Both medium- and heavy-duty truck sales posted year-over-year declines in September, with medium-duty truck sales down 7.6% and heavy-duty truck sales down 25.6%. Year-to-date sales were down as well. Comparing the first nine months of this year to the same period in 2024, medium-duty truck sales were down 10.7% and heavy-duty truck sales were down 9.2%. The total commercial truck market posted a 10% decline year-to-date through the end of September 2025.
According to ACT Research, preliminary Class 8 truck orders in September totaled 20,800 units, a decline of 44% year-over-year. The overall September order total, while still low, was up 57.6% from 13,200 units in August. Orders of Class 5-7 trucks also fell in September. ACT Research estimates that Class 5-7 truck orders fell to 15,500 units in September, a decline of 22% year-over-year. Macroeconomic uncertainty, tariffs and EPA’s pending MY27 emissions regulations are a few of the factors keeping truck buyers on the sidelines.
We await clarity following the president’s announcement of 25% tariffs on imported commercial trucks. According to the Motor and Equipment Manufacturers Association, roughly 35% of medium- and heavy-duty trucks sold in the U.S. are imported. These new tariffs will be another impediment to truck sales on top of the three-year freight recession and tariffs that already were implemented on a variety of goods hauled by trucks. There is some hope that there will be at least some relief from tariffs as the Supreme Court considers the legality of tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and reciprocal tariffs. But this ruling would not affect the proposed 25% tariff on imported trucks.
Additionally, EPA is expected to provide clarity on its upcoming MY27 greenhouse gas emissions regulations. If the regulations remain in place, there may be a late pre-buy before the rollout of MY27 trucks as buyers seek to avoid an estimated price increase of up to $20,000 for new emissions-compliant trucks.
As we have outlined here, there are several pending issues in the coming months that could impact our overall truck sales in the final quarter of 2025 and beyond. Our outlook for total commercial truck sales in 2025 is 450,000 units.
